Second Wave Scaremongering?

Heyy, 

Last week I wrote about the benefits of having to postpone our wedding and cramming in more holidays and living our even better lives, however, after some not-so-good news regarding a new opportunity I write in the same way I always do every week - Trying to look on the positive side of things. 

Week number thirteen and it honestly seems as though this will never end. Facemask for this. Queue for that. Cant go here and not allowed in there. It is getting boring and I am well and truly fed up with it all. Despite how tiresome I and many others are starting to or already finding lockdown and quarantine, I don't think we are near to the end as yet, especially so when figures from the BBC released today (Monday 10 August 2020) confirm that the number of new cases of coronavirus is rising and the death rate, though still in the low number in comparison to previous months, today is more than double last weeks reported nine. 

But is this scaremongering as the papers and media would have us believe or is it all comparative and respectful of one another? If you test more then you find more, ergo meaning the more that you test and trace this horrible virus, the more people will come back with having contracted it or be known to be infected, asymptomatic or not. It is a statistic that the more cases of detected COVID-19 the more deaths there will be as the Government grapple with the science and the research as we learn new things about it day by day and as the months go one we will be sure to learn even more. 

Is a second wave likely to happen? Well if the media outlets and news channels will have you believe, its definitive, and Mr Warehouse agrees. A keyworker himself, Mr Warehouse has some key insider information that makes us a little happier we postponed the wedding, although begrudging that an end is not in sight for no facemasks. BBC News confirms that whilst some countries are still dealing with large epidemics, but even those currently controlling the virus fear "the second wave" and that health experts in the UK are warning ministers to prepare for one following the decision to further ease restrictions in England from early July.

A conversation last weekend with my uncle over a much-needed coffee and break from the house we discussed this and the possibility that, much like the second phase of Spanish flu a century ago, the second wave was far deadlier than the first. 

Seeing a wave is simple - It is a prolonged period that rather than going down, cases and deaths continue to rise, hit a peak and then come down with each cycle being one "wave" of coronavirus. Yet there is no formal definition. "It's not particularly scientific: how you define a wave is arbitrary," Dr Mike Tildesley, from the University of Warwick, told the BBC News. For the scientists and virologists, the answer lies almost entirely with the decisions we make as members of the public and what our Government impose in terms of restrictions or easing thereof, so it could go either way. The potential is clearly there - the virus is still around and it is no less deadly or infectious than at the start of 2020. Only around 5% of people in the UK are thought to have been infected and there is no guarantee they are all immune.

Lifting lockdowns too soon and localised outbreaks not being dealt with in a serious and prompt manner could cause a second wave to start and ultimately if not dealt with swiftly can even help the steep rise in that wave. 

This all being said though, a news article from the express details quite the opposite, and that was released only just today. The risk of a second wave hitting the UK this winter has been quashed by a top doctor as the UK may soon have herd immunity he claims to the express. 

Official data from NHS England points to a huge drop in the number of coronavirus patients being treated in hospitals compared to during the height of the pandemic with one top doctor, Dr Ron Daniels, in Birmingham (one of the country's hardest-hit areas) noted last Thursday there were only three critically ill coronavirus patients across three hospitals which serve half of Birmingham's one million residents. "Comparing this with a couple of months ago, when we had almost 200 patients ventilated at any one given time, and this is a huge downturn," Dr Daniels says positively. 

Stating later on in the article that Britain is "almost reaching herd immunity" it is certainly some better news. And what he speaks makes sense. The pubs and restaurants and shops have been open well over a month now and as such the virus historically from records is that if you contract the virus and you’re going to end up in hospital, it is more than likely that this will happen within 15 days of contracting it initially. The drop of 96% since the peak of the UK's epidemic should ease fears of a deadly second round of the crisis details the express report, with some hospitals last week marking a huge milestone, declaring there was not a single COVID-19 patient on their wards. Hopefully, soon we can have more of that so we can all get back to fucking normal!

'Til next time, Love A.Lou xx