Second Wave Scaremongering?

Heyy, 

Last week I wrote about the benefits of having to postpone our wedding and cramming in more holidays and living our even better lives, however, after some not-so-good news regarding a new opportunity I write in the same way I always do every week - Trying to look on the positive side of things. 

Week number thirteen and it honestly seems as though this will never end. Facemask for this. Queue for that. Cant go here and not allowed in there. It is getting boring and I am well and truly fed up with it all. Despite how tiresome I and many others are starting to or already finding lockdown and quarantine, I don't think we are near to the end as yet, especially so when figures from the BBC released today (Monday 10 August 2020) confirm that the number of new cases of coronavirus is rising and the death rate, though still in the low number in comparison to previous months, today is more than double last weeks reported nine. 

But is this scaremongering as the papers and media would have us believe or is it all comparative and respectful of one another? If you test more then you find more, ergo meaning the more that you test and trace this horrible virus, the more people will come back with having contracted it or be known to be infected, asymptomatic or not. It is a statistic that the more cases of detected COVID-19 the more deaths there will be as the Government grapple with the science and the research as we learn new things about it day by day and as the months go one we will be sure to learn even more. 

Is a second wave likely to happen? Well if the media outlets and news channels will have you believe, its definitive, and Mr Warehouse agrees. A keyworker himself, Mr Warehouse has some key insider information that makes us a little happier we postponed the wedding, although begrudging that an end is not in sight for no facemasks. BBC News confirms that whilst some countries are still dealing with large epidemics, but even those currently controlling the virus fear "the second wave" and that health experts in the UK are warning ministers to prepare for one following the decision to further ease restrictions in England from early July.

A conversation last weekend with my uncle over a much-needed coffee and break from the house we discussed this and the possibility that, much like the second phase of Spanish flu a century ago, the second wave was far deadlier than the first. 

Seeing a wave is simple - It is a prolonged period that rather than going down, cases and deaths continue to rise, hit a peak and then come down with each cycle being one "wave" of coronavirus. Yet there is no formal definition. "It's not particularly scientific: how you define a wave is arbitrary," Dr Mike Tildesley, from the University of Warwick, told the BBC News. For the scientists and virologists, the answer lies almost entirely with the decisions we make as members of the public and what our Government impose in terms of restrictions or easing thereof, so it could go either way. The potential is clearly there - the virus is still around and it is no less deadly or infectious than at the start of 2020. Only around 5% of people in the UK are thought to have been infected and there is no guarantee they are all immune.

Lifting lockdowns too soon and localised outbreaks not being dealt with in a serious and prompt manner could cause a second wave to start and ultimately if not dealt with swiftly can even help the steep rise in that wave. 

This all being said though, a news article from the express details quite the opposite, and that was released only just today. The risk of a second wave hitting the UK this winter has been quashed by a top doctor as the UK may soon have herd immunity he claims to the express. 

Official data from NHS England points to a huge drop in the number of coronavirus patients being treated in hospitals compared to during the height of the pandemic with one top doctor, Dr Ron Daniels, in Birmingham (one of the country's hardest-hit areas) noted last Thursday there were only three critically ill coronavirus patients across three hospitals which serve half of Birmingham's one million residents. "Comparing this with a couple of months ago, when we had almost 200 patients ventilated at any one given time, and this is a huge downturn," Dr Daniels says positively. 

Stating later on in the article that Britain is "almost reaching herd immunity" it is certainly some better news. And what he speaks makes sense. The pubs and restaurants and shops have been open well over a month now and as such the virus historically from records is that if you contract the virus and you’re going to end up in hospital, it is more than likely that this will happen within 15 days of contracting it initially. The drop of 96% since the peak of the UK's epidemic should ease fears of a deadly second round of the crisis details the express report, with some hospitals last week marking a huge milestone, declaring there was not a single COVID-19 patient on their wards. Hopefully, soon we can have more of that so we can all get back to fucking normal!

'Til next time, Love A.Lou xx

Another Week, Another Christmas Party ...

Hello, 

Saturday night I rolled up late (as usual) to my new work's Christmas do, dressed to the nines and looking hopefully like a sparkly black and red Christmas cracker. Don't worry I was actually invited to this one. Eating my meal and mingling I wondered how it compared to the last Christmas party I attended less than a week earlier. But that was an unfair comparison. I had only been in my new role a few weeks really and knew few by name let alone face yet. And whilst I had a wonderful time I couldnt help think that next year will be better once I have established myself in the group of colleagues I have now and learn my place. I am loud and brash and sometimes can be quite drunk so will need to learn how best to mold myself to this new environment of sophisticated and seriously adulting individuals. I have come to realise that most of my work colleagues that are the same age as me are very grown up and have their shit seriously together - Buying houses, travelling and getting married and here I have a fucking FOMO when I can't get my eyeliner "on fleek" in the morning. I think if my new colleagues and job have an any influential change on me in the past few weeks it will have taught me that now it the time to hand back the bottle of Vodka, hang up the heels and become someone a little less full on. The new year will hopefully bring about some changes and see me starting to act my age and not the Gin-Princess I was last weekend. OK well the thought was there at least ...

But as the hours melt away and the big day fast approaches I am getting increasingly more excited about Christmas. And just when I thought I had peeked too early by singing Christmas songs before I turned twenty-five. Suffice to say that even before people started asking the questions of  "Are you ready for it?" and "Have you finished the shopping yet?" both Mr. Warehouse and I were more than ready, even as far to say that for both of us and our extended list of loved ones to buy for, we were done before we went to York in mid-November. I think I like it that way. I can get a feel for what I want to buy people towards the end of summer, and after my birthday is over and done with (not that it should sound like such a chore of course) I start buying the items that have been sat in my online baskets. 

Now I'll admit it that this year, I have spent less but have bought from many, many different retailers I would have never thought about going to before I had Vivienne (my car). I have been to Hobby Craft, The Works, Tesco and Argos all in the hope that what was in my bags from the high street and arriving in the post from Amazon were going to be something they loved. I am glad of the presents I have picked up for friends and family as whilst they are well thought out, creative and something they will enjoy, they are also well priced and if anything a bargain. And all because I plan in advance. 

My best advice to people is that funnily enough, Christmas is on the twenty-fifth of December next year. And it may sound crazy but its the same the following year, and the year after that and the year after that. It shouldn't be a big surprise that as soon as the leaves start turning brown you panic buy socks and Milk Trays in bulk. Plan ahead. Hit the sales in January and pick up the knock off Christmas Deck's, baubles and lights. Find the wrapping paper you loved and the cards that made you chuckle all at rock bottom prices. Become a chipmunk and squirrel stuff away in a Christmas box. Presents, gift wrap, and ornaments. Everything either you or someone else would want that year. Our Harry Potter AKA the cupboard under the stairs is a great place to start and hosting a boot sale to clear out the crap is the best way forward. Out with the old crap and in with the new crap. That's what Mr. Warehouse says. 

But as it gets closer to the end of summer, start thinking about people and their personalities and what they would want but don't they want. I have a spreadsheet and honestly I live my life on it. Colour-coded, key-enabled organised chaos is how I manage everything and most of all Christmas. I keep track of what I have bought people for Christmas the past two years, so as not to buy them the same wonderful gift again and work out financially what I have and what I can get for it. Its all about knowing the value not only of stuff generally and where to buy it cheap, but also that you have to work with what you've got. Everyone would love to give their husband, wife, mom, dad, nan, best friend or dog an eight-bedroom yacht called "Rosie" with enough petrol (or whatever boats drink) in it to head off to the Bahamas for a turkey dinner on the beach. But reality is we all have budgets for a paper boat made out of yesterdays Daily Star. 

Whatever your budgets though and whatever you have brought people this year, as well as whatever you have got for yourself; Just remember where you are. You are protected by four walls and a roof, in a warm home, surrounded by people who love you (probably), eating and drinking and being merry. Some people across the world don't have any of that. Some people that are right in your town, maybe even only a few moments from where you are now that have nothing. Just remember that you are extremely luck and all of us should remember that its about being grateful and thankful for what we all have and not being consumed by the consumerism and gumpf that Christmas pretends to be about. Christmas is family and love and warmth. So spend it with your loved ones and have a very Merry Christmas. 

'Til next time, Love A.Lou xx